The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened slightly higher during the night session before quickly pulling back, with downstream end-users maintaining only essential stockpiling. [SMM Tin Morning Brief]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on November 24, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2512) opened slightly higher during the night session, then quickly pulled back, hovering at highs and closing at 291,580 yuan/mt, down 0.18% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) Reuters reported on the 21st, citing sources, that the Trump administration is considering approving the export of Nvidia's H200 AI chips to China. The report cited informed sources stating that the U.S. Department of Commerce, which oversees export controls, is reviewing potential changes to restrictions on exports to China, noting that related plans may be adjusted. The report added that the U.S. Department of Commerce has not yet responded, and Nvidia has not directly commented. (2) According to the Passenger Car Association, the auto market entered the year-end push phase in November, coupled with producer "Double 11" sales promotions, generally maintaining the peak season sales momentum. However, by mid-month, most provinces had adjusted replacement and trade-in subsidies to varying degrees, intensifying consumer wait-and-see sentiment and adding significant uncertainty to the November auto market. Preliminary estimates suggest the retail market size for passenger vehicles this month could reach around 2.25 million units, flat MoM from October but down 8.7% YoY, with new energy retail sales expected around 1.35 million units and the penetration rate likely to exceed 60% for the first time. (3) On November 22, at the 2025 China "5G+" Industrial Internet Conference, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officially launched a commercial trial of China's satellite Internet of Things service. The trial period is two years, aiming to enrich the supply in the satellite communication market and support the safe, healthy development of emerging industries like commercial aerospace and the low-altitude economy. CITIC Securities research reports believe the satellite communication industry's strategic importance is prominent, with clear policy direction. Domestically, high-frequency launches are imminent, indicating an industry inflection point is near. According to Data Treasure statistics, based on consensus forecasts from five or more institutions, 15 satellite communication concept stocks are expected to achieve net profit growth exceeding 20% annually from 2025 to 2027. Among these 15 high-growth potential stocks, 12 have an upside potential of over 30% compared to the consensus target price.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply is tightening in major production areas like Yunnan. Most smelters are expected to maintain relatively stable production in November. (2) Demand side: Orders have significantly decreased due to weak demand in consumer electronics and home appliances. Downstream procurement remains cautious, with high prices noticeably suppressing actual consumption. Limited boost from emerging sectors: Although AI computing power improvements and growth in PV installations have driven some tin consumption, their current contribution scale remains small, insufficient to offset the decline in traditional sector consumption.

Spot market: Domestic tin prices fluctuated at highs. At the beginning of the week, influenced by macro sentiment, prices were under pressure and the most-traded SHFE tin contract closed at 290,360 yuan/mt on November 17, down 1.32% from the previous day. Subsequently, prices fluctuated rangebound, with the average spot tin ingot price reported at 290,500 yuan/mt on November 18, unchanged from the previous trading day. By November 19, due to reinforced expectations of supply tightening, the most-traded SHFE tin contract rebounded 1.19% to 293,370 yuan/mt, and the average spot price rose to 292,250 yuan/mt. Entering the weekend, cautious sentiment prevailed again, and on November 21, the most-traded SHFE tin contract pulled back to 290,740 yuan/mt, with the average spot price dropping to 291,400 yuan/mt, a decrease of 200 yuan from the previous day. Overall, the spot market saw sluggish trading, with high prices continuously suppressing downstream purchase willingness. Although smelters had a strong intention to hold prices, end-users only maintained essential stockpiling, and restocking enthusiasm occasionally rebounded but was unsustainable. The market was characterized by a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and there was a discrepancy between traders' quotation enthusiasm and actual transaction performance.

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